Two Swallows ....
Two swallows do not make a summer, as the old saying goes, but here are a few links to current articles and blog posts that give some cause for optimism:
Chinese manufacturing is expanding for the first time since August 2008
End to Europe's recession in sight?
So this is what a recession looks like ....
Clearly, we are not out of the woods .... not by a long way .... and there is undoubtedly more pain to come in the next few months. All but the most optimistic economists whose work I am tracking to make sense of the implications for law firm strategy are putting real recovery firmly into 2010. But .... things do look like they will start to improve before then and we may look back and see that the bottom of the recession "trough" was round about now, or even that it occurred a month or two ago. More importantly: a clearer picture is also emerging now of what the strategic environment for law firms will look like post-recession. It is very clear that it will be substantially different, in many important ways, to what we were used to in the 1990s and 2000s.
For the past six months at least, managing partners have been mostly too busy firefighting to think deeply about strategy. This is unsurprising. The most brilliant strategy in the world means nothing if the next skirmish proves fatal. The time is close though, if not already here, to start shifting the focus back to the medium term. By "medium term," I mean the period from the return to positive GDP growth (i.e. early 2010) up to three to five years (still a useful time-frame) later when the recession's effects will have been fully diluted into a new set of market vectors. The reward for doing so will be to identify actions that need to be taken in late 2009, in order to drive your firm forward in that medium term, while your competitors' eyes are still "off the ball." For some firms, this will mean strengthening their position. For others, it could mean the difference between prosperity and dissolution.
This medium term will almost certainly remain full of surprises (of both the opportunity and the threat variety) so agility and flexibility are critical. In turn, this will take a very different approach to strategic planning, to that which most law firms (and others) used in their last strategic planning cycle. So, even if you are not ready to embark on a new strategic planning exercise just yet, it is time for you to start thinking how you and your firm need to change the way that you think about strategy and how you intend approaching strategic planning this time around.
If you'd like to discuss options further, by all means email me. I'd love to hear from you.