Forecasts for the Next 25 Years
Posted By Rob Millard - 0 Comments -
The World Future Society (a premier competitive intelligence resource) has just published a set of forecasts for the next 25 years from its members and from its journal The Futurist. Here are their Top 10.
The difference between an opportunity and a crisis is often simply foresight and forethought. How would each of these impact your firm, if they came to be?
Forecast #1: Hydrogen fuel cells will be cost competitive by 2010. The cost of power via fuel cell is dropping rapidly—from $600,000 per kilowatt-hour in the 1970s to $1,200 today. By 2012, fuel cell power is expected to cost around $400 per kilowatt-hour. It would then be competitive with every type of power. Fuel cells will power cars and allow each home to have its own non-polluting electricity generator.
Forecast #2: The era of the Cyborg is at hand. Researchers in Israel have fashioned a "bio-computer" using the DNA of living cells instead of silicon chips. This development may soon allow a computer to connect directly with a human brain.
Forecast #3: By 2015, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt may emerge as hubs for high-speed, large-capacity supersonic planes. NASA's X-43A Scramjet recently flew at 7,000 mph (nearly ten times the speed of sound). These hyperspeed planes will whisk passengers across continents in the time it takes most people to drive to the airport.
Forecast #4: Schools based on classrooms and a human teacher will dwindle over the next 25 years. Why sit in a classroom when you can visit virtual worlds and experience your subjects? An "avatar," a personalized interactive guide, will answer all of your questions and help you pose new ones.
Forecast #5: Speculation in hydrogen energy stocks could create an investment bubble, as happened with the Internet. When investors see the huge potential of hydrogen energy, the stocks of companies with promising technologies may skyrocket to unsustainable levels.
Forecast #6: Ocean Currents May Surpass Wind as an Energy Source. Turbines driven by ocean currents could generate four times more electricity than windmills. At one site alone—in the Channel Islands off the coast of France—the potential electricity could match that produced by three nuclear power plants.
Forecast #7: A snail may save your life. A non-addictive painkiller one thousand times more potent than morphine could soon be on the market, thanks to research on conotoxins, the distinct set of chemicals found in tropical cone snails. Future medicines from the snails may help treat heart disease, depression and spinal cord injuries, among other ailments.
Forecast #8: Weapons of mass destruction will be even easier to obtain over the next 15 years. Terrorists may move from bombs to creating havoc on the cellular level. The weapons of the future—genetic engineering and nanotechnology—require neither large facilities nor mass materials.
Forecast #9: The convergence of genetic engineering, nanotechnology and robotics will allow humans to change their bodies in profoundly new ways. In the next 15 years, people may be able to rearrange their genes to change their physical features, extend their lifespan, merge their brains with computers and their bodies with robots, among many other remarkable developments.
Forecast #10: Robots and smart environments will improve care and independence for the elderly. Intelligent walkers will help seniors get around while sensors on the handlebars monitor their vital signs. Handheld devices will track senior citizens' movements and guide them around town, keeping people mobile and independent.
Long range forecasts are, of course, dangerously unreliable but what one needs to do with them is consider:
What would be the impact on our firm if this did happen? What would we need to do? Could we execute what we need to do, if we have to? What skills / resources do we need to be able to execute?
As the forecast periods become shorter, so their accuracy improves and scenerios may well evolve from being a long range possibilities to being real and present opportunities or threats. Being forewarned means being forearmed and able to act faster than one's competitors.
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