Logic Not Always Best For Real-World Decisions
Posted By Rob Millard - 0 Comments -
Real-world decisions are not always made through logical steps, and often they shouldn't be. That's the startling conclusion reached by renowned strategist Henry Mintzberg, author of the landmark book The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning and Frances Westley in an article in the Spring 2006 MIT Sloan Management Review, titled Decision Making - It's not what you think.
The popular view is that people follow a logical "think first" sequence when making decisions, that goes something like this:
-Define the problem
-Diagnose its causes
-Identify alternative solutions
-Select the best alternative
-Implement it
In reality, the authors argue, this is seldom the case. People often use other methods like relying on previous experience, flashes of intuition, or trial and error. Often, they argue, these methods yield better results because "thinking first" may focus too heavily on the matter itself, interfering with deep understanding of the issues dividing people and actually preventing a good decision.
The authors write that there are three generic approaches to decision making. Managers need to understand and be able to apply all of them because each is best under different circumstances.
"Thinking first" works best when the issue is clear, data is reliable, the context is structured, thoughts can be pinned down and discipline can be applied - for example, in assessing client satisfaction levels and developing plans to increase them.
"Seeing first" works best when many elements must be combined into creative solutions, commitment to those solutions is key and communication across boundaries is essential - for example, in new-service development.
"Doing first" works best when the situation is novel and confusing, when complicated specifications might get in the way and a few simple relationship rules could help people move forward - for example, when companies face a disruptive change in the market that needs to be addressed quickly and effectively.
The article is available on subscription or a download can be purchased from MIT for $6.50. Click on the hyperlink above.
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