Global Outlook Generally Positive
Posted By Rob Millard - 1 Comments -
What with all the bad news we constantly read and watch in the media, it is easy to lose sight of the positive overall picture. I have just finished going through the 2006 report of the United Nation’s Millennium Project. In general, the global trends are quite encouraging. If one removes Africa from the equation (although one obviously cannot do that,) many of the trends are very encouraging. The number of wars (being defined as conflicts in which more than 1000 people die) is down dramatically since the 1980s. The number of countries in the world that are characterized as “free” has increased. Except in sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people living below the poverty line of US$1.00 per day has decreased substantially. There are more women in the world’s parliaments and education levels are on the rise.
Iran and North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is frightening but the threat of a nuclear conflict is nothing new. It has been with us for over half a century. R&D investments are on the rise in most developed countries, leading to accelerated innovation in almost all industry sectors.
On the downside, environmental degradation is a major concern. Particularly global warming and the continued decimation of forest lands and biodiversity. So, obviously, is global terrorism. Although HIV/AIDS is not on the exponential curve that some were predicting a few years ago, it is also still on the increase. Especially in Africa.
The program has isolated a series of key performance areas ("predictive variables") that together make up their State of the Future Index ("SOFI.") The current balance is as follows:
| Where we're winning |
Where we're losing |
GDP per capita Food availability Life expectancy Adult literacy Infant mortality Access to safe water Access to health care School enrollment |
Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Unemployment Loss of forestlands Number of poor people AIDS deaths Emerging economy debt Terrorism risks |
What does this mean? Well, it means that in many parts of the world, people are finding themselves in a far happier place than they did a decade or two ago. This bodes well for all aspects of society, including trade and the demand for professional services. Over the next few years, we can expect several of those countries that fall into the upper spectrum of 'emerging economies,' to fully join the mainstream of global commerce and industry. Those firms in the developed world with the sense of adventure and cultural maturity to step out of their home markets and contribute to helping these emerging economies do so will, I very firmly believe, find themselves reaping rich rewards in years to come.
Here are a few graphs illustrating the above trends:
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