Light at the end of the tunnel?
Posted By Rob Millard - 0 Comments -
Law Fuel in New Zealand reports on a survey by the The Lawyer (UK) amongst managing partners of major City law firms. The article says firms are preparing staff for financials at 2003 levels, but that firms said uniformly that they expected a recovery from the recession within 18 months.
That would be by late 2010; which would in turn mean that the Economist had it nearly right (slightly under-estimated) when they calculated about a year ago (May 2008) that it would last for ten quarters measured from its commencement in late 2007. See pic below from my deck of presentation slides on "The World and the Legal Profession in the 21st Century," comparing the current recession to recent predecessors. The slide is based on a diagram that the Economist published in the edition of 17 May 2008. (Click on thumbnail for larger version.) At that time, of course, Lehman brothers were still trading and the liquidity crisis had hardly even begun to manifest itself. Also, the Economist is talking about how long it will take to return to pre-crisis levels. The managing partners, I suspect, are talking only about how long until we return to positive growth.
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